Another Bayes Theorem question as it would apply to my solo gaming.

Another Bayes Theorem question as it would apply to my solo gaming.

So you have Bayes THeorem: (P(A|B) = P(B|A) * P(A))/p(B). I am not sure what to do with p(B|A), p(A) and P(B) when I have no idea of their probabilities, other than to set their odds at 50% to start with. I don’t really have a problem with that, but I would like to update their probabilities based on the outcome of that 50/50 roll– and that I’m not sure how to do best or correctly.

I had a notion of maybe increasing or decreasing their probability by a each time or half a percent, but I really have no clue if that would be good or not. What approaches could one take to this?

Hey guys

Hey guys,

Not sure if anyone has posted this here or not, but I just heard about a Kickstarter campaign that might interest some folks here. It’s a campaign to translate and publish a series of French game books. It’s a series of 5, though each is a seperate game. Like, in one you play as the mayor of a small town in the Old West, in another you are a werewolf, and in another you play as Sherlock Holmes.

Anyway, figured I’d let folks here know about it. It’s fully funded, but in its final hours.

https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/vanrydergames/graphic-novel-adventures?ref=user_menu

https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/vanrydergames/graphic-novel-adventures?ref=user_menu

I have played the 11th session of my Ironsworn / Song of Blades and Heroes campaign. Typically, I drop my campaigns…

I have played the 11th session of my Ironsworn / Song of Blades and Heroes campaign. Typically, I drop my campaigns before the tenth episode, so this is a success. The current story is interesting and the main character is facing a dire moment: I am curious to see how it goes 🙂

https://solounmondodicarta.wordpress.com/2018/04/22/amara-of-whitebridge-11-a-trollish-setback/

https://solounmondodicarta.wordpress.com/2018/04/22/amara-of-whitebridge-11-a-trollish-setback/